The Christmas Market Attack in Berlin and Attitudes Toward Refugees: A Natural Experiment with Data from the European Social Survey

This study uses a quasi-experimental design to examine changes in attitudes toward refugees following the December 19, 2016, terrorist attack on the Berlin Christmas market. Leveraging random variation in the European Social Survey’s field period, the analysis shows that immediately after the attack, only right-wing individuals exhibited worsened attitudes toward minorities. Over time, however, this negative spillover effect extended to the general population, regardless of education levels. The findings highlight the broader societal impact of such events on public opinion toward ethnic minorities.

Journal Article