Do jihadist terrorist attacks cause changes in institutional trust? A multi-site natural experiment

Previous research suggests that terrorist attacks temporarily increase institutional trust, explained by the ‘rally effect,’ where crises boost support for leaders and institutions. Using a novel approach, we analyzed all jihadist attacks with civilian casualties during European Social Survey fieldwork across five countries, combining eight natural experiments through meta-analytic techniques. Our findings show mixed support for the rally hypothesis, with some attacks increasing trust (e.g., France 2015) and others having no effect or decreasing trust (e.g., Russia 2012). Overall, meta-analyses reveal no significant effects, challenging the generalizability of rally effects across diverse contexts.

Journal Article