The Christmas Market Attack in Berlin and Attitudes Toward Refugees: A Natural Experiment with Data from the European Social Survey

Abstract

Using a quasi-experimental research design, this study examines changes in attitudes toward refugees after the terrorist attack on the Berlin Christmas market of December 19, 2016. In our analysis, we make use of random variation in the field period of the European Social Survey (ESS) to fashion a natural experimental design. The survey’s field period took place in Germany from August 23, 2016, to March 26, 2017. Hence, the Christmas market attack took place approximately halfway through the ESS’s field phase, thus making it possible to study the causal effect on changing attitudes toward minorities before and after the attack. We argue that the terrorist attack creates a spillover effect and negatively shapes public opinion of uninvolved ethnic minorities. Our data analysis suggests that immediately after the event, only people with a right-wing political attitude appear to be affected by the proposed spillover effect. However, we find that the worsening of attitudes toward refugees can also be observed in the general population as time progresses. We do not find variation according to educational levels.